Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 2.169993 2.922178 3.968933 5.577941 8.075802e+00 1.196494e+01 1.882778e+01
2025-02-09 1.585765 2.470082 3.964111 6.867933 1.291610e+01 2.650711e+01 6.575994e+01
2025-02-16 1.141596 1.990029 3.665716 7.662923 1.872082e+01 5.598942e+01 2.663452e+02
2025-02-23 0.800619 1.519355 3.123023 7.663045 2.396608e+01 1.084773e+02 1.332685e+03
2025-03-02 0.566270 1.147500 2.576303 7.247810 2.855595e+01 2.035397e+02 1.166176e+04
2025-03-09 0.450212 0.979357 2.427841 8.036085 4.286521e+01 6.333466e+02 4.059093e+07
2025-03-16 0.361564 0.835670 2.262096 8.726547 6.401847e+01 2.602683e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.301186 0.737669 2.178492 9.868304 1.054872e+02 2.592313e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 0.252712 0.650955 2.078834 10.970108 1.762114e+02 2.846356e+06 NaN
2025-04-06 0.203436 0.540621 1.814233 10.593550 2.302798e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.163630 0.444719 1.547607 9.755086 2.720683e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.141281 0.397374 1.463109 10.429396 4.539495e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.125764 0.369407 1.463309 12.332571 1.101765e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.114091 0.350427 1.499920 15.260884 3.841694e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.100360 0.317963 1.438077 16.856155 1.192241e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.085733 0.276305 1.288867 16.402572 2.487942e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.072652 0.236471 1.123085 15.009964 3.898872e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.065528 0.218875 1.090321 16.656264 3.227363e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.059077 0.201773 1.047973 18.083102 1.248541e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.054221 0.189899 1.034645 20.652205 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.049744 0.178114 1.012846 23.163014 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.044118 0.159137 0.918073 22.009205 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.038870 0.140522 0.814257 19.806417 NaN NaN NaN